Scientists Find That Only Technological Innovations Consistently Advance Environmental Sustainability
Renewable energy and labour productivity do not always contribute to environmental sustainability. Technological innovation is the only factor that consistently has a positive effect. This is the conclusion reached by an international team of researchers, including Natalia Veselitskaya, Leading Research Fellow at the HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre. The study has been published in Sustainable Development.
To assess the environmental impact of factors such as economic growth, demographic challenges, technological innovation, renewable energy, and labour productivity, the authors employed an unconventional methodology. This enabled a deeper analysis of the structure of economic–environmental relationships in the studied countries and revealed paradoxes that would likely remain hidden under a standard statistical approach.
The team used a combination of wavelet coherence analysis (WCA) and wavelet quantile regression (WQR). WCA makes it possible to observe how the correlation between variables changes over time and across different frequencies (capturing both short- and long-term fluctuations), while WQR shows how the effect varies depending on the state of the ecosystem itself.
The scientists identified a single consistently effective factor—technological innovation. It is the only driver that has unambiguously improved environmental performance, as reflected in the load capacity factor, across all the studied countries and over all time horizons.
Natalia Veselitskaya
'The introduction of environmental technologies helps increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions in all cases studied,' emphasised Veselitskaya. 'This is a key factor in decoupling economic growth from environmental degradation.'
This finding is important for decision-makers, as support for innovation in green technologies yields predictable and consistent results regardless of national characteristics.
Labour productivity proved to be the most controversial factor. Companies, especially in carbon-intensive sectors, tend to use productivity gains to increase total output rather than reduce resource consumption. In a profit-driven economy, production scales up to the point where the benefits of improved efficiency are outweighed by the growth of the overall environmental footprint.
The study also showed that an increase in the use of renewable energy sources often does not lead to the expected positive outcomes. Rather than replacing carbon-based energy, renewables frequently supplement it, resulting in limited environmental benefits.
The publication of this study was prepared as part of the basic research project 'Trends and Factors of Sustainable Science and Technology Development' (HSE ISSEK, 2025).
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