Independent Experts More Effective Than Collective Expertise in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
.jpg "Independent Experts More Effective Than Collective Expertise in Decision-Making Under Uncertainty")
A collaborative study by Sergey Stepanov, Associate Professor at the HSE Faculty of Economic Sciences and ICEF, and experts from INSEAD Business School and NYU Shanghai, indicates that in making decisions under high uncertainty, where it is unclear which choice is superior, advice from independent experts may be more beneficial than a collective opinion from a group of experts. The study has been published in Games and Economic Behavior.
In real-life situations, decision-makers often face the dilemma of whether to rely on the opinions of multiple independent experts or opt for collective consultation. Independent expert opinions are common in fields such as science and medicine—for instance, when reviewing papers for academic journals, multiple experts independently provide their feedback without knowing the identities of the other reviewers. Examples of collective expertise include meetings of directors, think tanks, commissions, and advisory boards, where solutions are discussed and assessed by experts working together as a team.
To determine when it may be more effective to rely on independent expert opinions versus a collective assessment, the researchers developed a model featuring several hypothetical experts who have received information about the situation but may interpret it in different ways. Each expert's goal is to convince the decision-maker of their competence by providing the most accurate forecast possible. The model envisioned two scenarios: independent expertise, where the experts were unaware of each other's involvement, and collective expertise, where they could discuss the information before presenting a unified opinion.
In the model, whether the experts express their true opinions is influenced by their reputation concerns. When a particular option is considered the most likely to be the right choice a priori, an independent expert may hesitate to contradict this prior opinion. But when acting as a group, individuals can first share opinions among themselves and thus reinforce their doubts if many experts have those, allowing the group to provide a more accurate response in such situations. Where an individual expert might refrain from speaking out, a group can persuade management to adopt a different perspective if it appears more suitable.
The study's findings indicate that the effectiveness of either approach depends on the level of certainty in the situation. In conditions of certainty, where the likelihood of success for each option is relatively well understood, a collective approach facilitates the gathering of more data and the development of a unified solution. By collaboratively discussing and analysing information, a team of experts can reach more accurate conclusions and reduce disagreements.
However, independent expertise is more effective in challenging and unpredictable situations. When it is unclear what is right a priori, an individual expert is not afraid of expressing their true opinion. This approach also helps prevent the influence of groupthink, where experts feel compelled to conform to the majority opinion. Hence, in contrast to the collective expertise, independent experts will be able to credibly communicate disagreements among them, which is valuable for choosing the optimal decision.
By 'high uncertainty,' the researchers refer to situations where there is no clear or widely accepted understanding of the potential outcome. These may include unconventional economic forecasts, unstable political situations, unfamiliar medical cases, and other scenarios that require flexibility and a non-standard approach to assessment.
'The study's findings can reshape our understanding of whether collective or independent advice is more effective. For a decision-maker, this choice does not depend on their personal preferences,' according to Sergey Stepanov, Associate Professor at the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
When it is unclear what choice is correct a priori, , independent experts can provide a more objective opinion. This can be observed, for instance, when surveying economists for forecasts on inflation or GDP growth, where the complexity of economic processes makes it impossible to determine a single 'correct' opinion in advance. The mass media, think tanks, and government agencies conduct such surveys among various experts to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the situation.
'In some cases, we can choose whether to consult an independent expert or seek advice from a group of experts,' Sergey Stepanov believes. 'For example, when making a complex medical diagnosis, one can either consult several medical experts independently or convene a medical case conference. Both of these approaches can be effective.'
Thus, according to the authors, the choice between independent and collective expertise depends on the specific situation, its complexity, and the available data.
See also:
HSE Scientists Take Important Step Forward in Development of 6G Communication Technologies
Researchers at HSE MIEM have successfully demonstrated the effective operation of a 6G wireless communication channel at sub-THz frequencies. The device transmits data at 12 Gbps and maintains signal stability by automatically switching when blocked. These metrics comply with international 6G standards. An article published on arXiv, an open-access electronic repository, provides a description of certain elements of the system.
AI vs AI: Scientists Develop Neural Networks to Detect Generated Text Insertions
A research team, including Alexander Shirnin from HSE University, has developed two models designed to detect AI-generated insertions in scientific texts. The AIpom system integrates two types of models: a decoder and an encoder. The Papilusion system is designed to detect modifications through synonyms and summarisation by neural networks, using one type of models: encoders. In the future, these models will assist in verifying the originality and credibility of scientific publications. Articles describing the Papilusion and AIpom systems have been published in the ACL Anthology Digital Archive.
Acoustic Battles for the Harem: How the Calls of Siberian Wapiti Reveal Their Status and Individuality
Researchers at HSE University, Lomonosov Moscow State University, and the A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of the Russian Academy of Sciences have studied the distinctive vocalisations of Siberian wapiti (Cervus canadensis sibiricus) stags during the peak of the mating season, when males produce rutting calls (bugles) to attract females (hinds) and deter rivals. The scientists have discovered how the acoustic parameters of these rutting calls reflect the stag's status—whether he currently holds a harem or is still attempting to acquire one—as well as his individual characteristics. The study has been published in Journal of Zoology.
Z-Flipons: How Specific DNA Regions Help Regulate Gene Function
Researchers at HSE University and InsideOutBio have applied machine learning to identify the location and functions of mirror-twisted DNA structures, known as Z-flipons, in human and mouse genomes. The scientists discovered which Z-DNA regions were conserved in both species throughout evolution and demonstrated for the first time that Z-DNA accelerates the process of creating RNA copies of genes. The findings will contribute to the development of new treatments for genetic diseases. The study has been published in Scientific Reports.
HSE Researchers Develop Python Library for Analysing Eye Movements
A research team at HSE University has developed EyeFeatures, a Python library for analysing and modelling eye movement data. This tool is designed to simplify the work of scientists and developers by enabling them to efficiently process complex data and create predictive models.
Scientists Identify Fifteen Key Motives Driving Human Behaviour
Researchers at HSE University and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have identified 15 key motives that drive human behaviour. By analysing people's views, preferences, and actions through an evolutionary lens, they demonstrated how these motives intertwine to shape habits and interpersonal relationships. The findings have been published in Personality and Individual Differences.
HSE Neurolinguists Create Russian Adaptation of Classic Verbal Memory Test
Researchers at the HSE Centre for Language and Brain and Psychiatric Hospital No. 1 Named after N.A. Alexeev have developed a Russian-language adaptation of the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test. This classic neuropsychological test evaluates various aspects of auditory verbal memory in adults and is widely used in both clinical diagnostics and research. The study findings have been published in The Clinical Neuropsychologist.
Tickling the Nerves: Why Crime Content is Popular
Consumers of content about serial killers watch and read it to experience intense emotions that are often lacking in everyday life and to understand the reasons that drive people to commit crimes. However, such content does not contribute to increased aggression. These conclusions were drawn by sociologists from HSE University. The results of their study have been published in Crime, Media, Culture: An International Journal.
HSE Researchers Prove the Existence of Nash Equilibrium for a New Class of Problems in Game Theory
Researchers at HSE University's St Petersburg School of Economics and Management have been exploring methods for the efficient allocation of resources in systems involving multiple players. The scientists have proven the existence of strategies for optimal decision-making in competition for limited, discrete resources in four different cases. The developed mathematical model can be applied in various fields, ranging from education and medicine to managing networks and computing power. The paper has been published in Games and Economic Behaviour.
Researchers at HSE Centre for Language and Brain Reveal Key Factors Determining Language Recovery in Patients After Brain Tumour Resection
Alina Minnigulova and Maria Khudyakova at the HSE Centre for Language and Brain have presented the latest research findings on the linguistic and neural mechanisms of language impairments and their progression in patients following neurosurgery. The scientists shared insights gained from over five years of research on the dynamics of language impairment and recovery.